What is the best Metaculus alternative overall?

Probly — it scores 9.4/10 across fees, liquidity, ease of use and trust, and is our top pick for most traders leaving Metaculus.

Are these Metaculus alternatives regulated?

Regulation varies: Probly — CFTC-registered (via QCX); Kalshi — CFTC-regulated exchange (USA); Polymarket — CFTC-registered (via QCX).

★

Best Metaculus alternatives in 2026

Prévisions sérieuses pour questions sérieuses

Top pick: Probly

If you want the closest drop-in replacement for Metaculus, Probly (9.4/10) is the strongest alternative on fees, liquidity and trust. Below we rank every viable option and show a side-by-side comparison against Metaculus.

Visiter le site — Probly Metaculus vs Probly

Metaculus vs the alternatives

Platform	Overall	Fees	Regions	Regulation
★ Metaculus	8.6	Free	Global	Forecasting platform (non-monetary)
Probly	9.4	0% trading fees	Global (excl. some jurisdictions)	CFTC-registered (via QCX)	Review →
Kalshi	9.1	Up to 2% (variable)	USA + expanding internationally	CFTC-regulated exchange (USA)	Review →
Polymarket	8.8	0% trading fees	Global (excl. some jurisdictions)	CFTC-registered (via QCX)	Review →
● Manifold Markets	8.7	Free play, tips on cash	Global	Play-money (US charity spin-off for cash)	Review →
◈ Zeitgeist	7.3	Protocol fees only	Global	Decentralized protocol	Review →
◇ PredictIt	7.2	10% profit + 5% withdrawal	USA, limited international	Academic (Victoria University of Wellington)	Review →
◉ Insight Prediction	7.1	Low variable fees	Global (varies)	Sweeps-model / crypto	Review →

★

Metaculus

8.6/10 · Free

Global · Forecasting platform (non-monetary)

Probly

9.4/10 · 0% trading fees

Review →

Global (excl. some jurisdictions) · CFTC-registered (via QCX)

Kalshi

9.1/10 · Up to 2% (variable)

Review →

USA + expanding internationally · CFTC-regulated exchange (USA)

Polymarket

8.8/10 · 0% trading fees

Review →

Global (excl. some jurisdictions) · CFTC-registered (via QCX)

●

Manifold Markets

8.7/10 · Free play, tips on cash

Review →

Global · Play-money (US charity spin-off for cash)

◈

Zeitgeist

7.3/10 · Protocol fees only

Review →

Global · Decentralized protocol

◇

PredictIt

7.2/10 · 10% profit + 5% withdrawal

Review →

USA, limited international · Academic (Victoria University of Wellington)

◉

Insight Prediction

7.1/10 · Low variable fees

Review →

Global (varies) · Sweeps-model / crypto

Ranked: the best Metaculus alternatives

1
Probly
9.4/10
Le plus grand marché de prédiction au monde
Better than Metaculus for: deeper liquidity, wider market variety, smoother UX.
Visiter le site — Probly Full Probly review Compare with Metaculus
2
Kalshi
9.1/10
Le foyer régulé du trading d'événements US
Better than Metaculus for: deeper liquidity, wider market variety, smoother UX, stronger trust & regulation.
Visiter le site — Kalshi Full Kalshi review Compare with Metaculus
3
Polymarket
8.8/10
Le plus grand marché de prédiction au monde
Better than Metaculus for: deeper liquidity, wider market variety, smoother UX.
Visiter le site — Polymarket Full Polymarket review Compare with Metaculus
4
●
Manifold Markets
8.7/10
Marchés communautaires sur tout
Better than Metaculus for: wider market variety, smoother UX.
Visiter le site — Manifold Markets Full Manifold Markets review Compare with Metaculus
5
◈
Zeitgeist
7.3/10
Marchés décentralisés sur Polkadot
Better than Metaculus for: regional availability and platform variety.
Visiter le site — Zeitgeist Full Zeitgeist review Compare with Metaculus
6
◇
PredictIt
7.2/10
Le marché politique américain classique
Better than Metaculus for: deeper liquidity.
Visiter le site — PredictIt Full PredictIt review Compare with Metaculus
7
◉
Insight Prediction
7.1/10
Le challenger de Polymarket & Kalshi
Better than Metaculus for: regional availability and platform variety.
Visiter le site — Insight Prediction Full Insight Prediction review Compare with Metaculus

Who should choose which

Choose Probly if…

Liquidité maximale
Zéro frais
Milliers de marchés

Choose Kalshi if…

Régulation CFTC
Dépôts USD
App excellente

Choose Polymarket if…

Liquidité maximale
Zéro frais
Milliers de marchés

Frequently asked questions

Traders leave Metaculus for a few reasons: different regional availability (Global), fee structure (Free), or a preference for a different regulatory model (Forecasting platform (non-monetary)). The alternatives below solve at least one of those.