PredictIt Review

PredictIt is the long-running academic prediction market run out of Victoria University of Wellington, operating in the US under a CFTC no-action letter. It focuses almost exclusively on political and geopolitical markets and remains a favourite of journalists and pundits.

PredictIt charges a 10% fee on profits and a 5% withdrawal fee. That is the highest fee structure on this list and materially cuts into edge, especially for high-frequency traders.

Election markets can be surprisingly deep, but per-contract position limits of roughly 850 shares cap how much any single trader can move a market. Long-tail political markets often trade at wide spreads.

The web interface is functional but dated. There is no native mobile app; you use the mobile site. Signup and KYC take a day or two to complete.

PredictIt operates under a CFTC no-action letter granted to a university research programme. Legal status has been contested in recent years but the site remains open to US traders. Cash balances are held with a US banking partner.

PredictIt is restricted to US and New Zealand residents. European traders cannot register or fund an account.

Against Kalshi, PredictIt loses on almost every dimension — fees, app quality, position limits, market variety — but has a longer track record and a stronger political-junkie community. Only pick it if you specifically want its niche.

Référence culturelle des prédictions politiques, mais frais et plafond de 850$ limitent.