What Are Prediction Markets?
A plain-English intro to prediction markets, how they price probability, and why they beat pundits.
A prediction market is a marketplace where people trade contracts whose payout depends on the outcome of a future event. If you buy a YES share at 62¢ and the event happens, you receive $1 — a 38¢ profit.
Because traders put real money on the line, prices aggregate information from thousands of participants, producing calibrated probability estimates that consistently outperform expert pundits.
Modern prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi settle in USDC or US dollars, run 24/7, and cover politics, sports, economics, culture and more.
Prediction Market Reviews
Latest guides
Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Should You Choose in 2026?
A detailed head-to-head on fees, liquidity, regulation and UX.
How to Read Prediction Market Odds
Odds, probability, spread and volume — explained without jargon.
Are Prediction Markets Legal in Your Country?
A country-by-country rundown of prediction market legality.